Wednesday, July 1, 2009

What does the Obama administration mean for India

India's relationship with America is counter-intuitive. Whenever there is a democratic administration in power, India suffers. The US-India relationship has seen some of its strongest traction with a republican administrations. Bush was a case in point. Personally, I have been sceptical of the Obama administration. I think that Obama will make the same mistakes that Clinton made in his 1st term. Hyphenating India to Pakistan, focussing on the 'aspirations' of the kashmiri people, entering into a quid pro quo with Pakistan for assistance in the 'af-pak' region and focussing on China to the detriment of India. And yes of course, how could I forget, talking about nuclear disarmament...the most cherished of all democratic ideals........
The administration has played true to form.
The Secrectary of State visited China and is yet to visit india.
The Undersecrectary of state visited us to 'nudge' us in directions of talk with India.
Suddenly the 'unresolved' issue of Kashmir has gained currency and Pakistan has again started talking about the 'core' issue and 'human rights' violations in Kashmir.
The India-US nuclear deal, for which our PM almost gave up his post, is in deep hibernation. There is no movement and in all probability, we should write it off for the duration of this administration. That deal meant more than simple economics. That was a tactic acknowledgement of our nuclear capability and a strategic move to cultivate us as a counter-weight to China.
This latest blog entry by Brahma Chellaney indicates as much. He is one of the analysts I follow quite regularly and his perspectives are quite grounded and accurate.
http://chellaney.spaces.live.com/blog/cns!4913C7C8A2EA4A30!1045.entry

What is disappointing is that our policy administrators did not see it coming and still seem to view US through rose tinted glasses. We need to fashion our destiny on our own terms and through our own sensibilities. Why do we still need to draw our meaning from US. India needs to fashion its destiny on its own terms. We need to be able to create our own space and drive our agenda through. If US is caught in a bear hug with China (for its own survival) and Pakistan (to whom it has outsourced its war on terror), then we need to chart our own course. We will have enough allies who will see common cause with us in levelling the power balance in Asia and ensuring that China's ascendancy is not at the cost of others. The irony of this is that US is most comfortable dealing with Dictatorships rather than democracies. Our leaders need to grow some spine and start thinking of what is best for India. It was steel that allowed Indira Gandhi to create Bangladesh. It was steel which allowed Narsimha Rao and Vajpayee to make the buddha smile. We need simillar steel today. While our PM may want to get Obama's autograph for his grandkids, he needs to see obama in the eye and lay out our agenda. If US and India can tango, then it is great. Else, we need to bide our time and make new alliances which help us achieve what we want. And alongside, we need to bunker down to ensure that our core negotiation positions dont get diluted in the guise of 'talks'.......